Last updated: 2025-12-27
This is my now page which represents what I’ve been up to in the last year.
Eli and Ian are both growing up so so fast. We are currently potty training Eli.
I’ve allocated a small amount of capital to try active trading again. I’ve known about trend following for over a decade now and read books by Mark Minvervini, Stan Weinstein, and Bill O’neil. I stumbled across this new trader Kristjan Kullamägi who made over 100M in 7 years and had this realization that he is trading the same style as Mark, Stan and Bill. I’ve always been searching for some secret formula and the realization is that there isn’t one. The formula has already been written down by these three and many others. The formula is as old as time. You buy breakouts if the trade goes against you you are out with a small loss. If it goes in your favor you let profits run with some sort of trailing stop to eventually profit when it stops trending. That’s it. That is the whole thing. It is simple but not easy. The win rate is ~30% and it is psychologically difficult to both take losses 70% of the time and give back profits on your winning trades in order to confirm the trend is over. The search is finally over. I have the winning formula I just need to adapt it and master my mental discipline.
I got inspired in late 2023 to start building in public again. I started my career blogging in 2007 (on this very blog!). I initially tried to make money blogging and failed. Instead, it led to building a successful business, RocketShipIt. I got busy running the business and stopped blogging entirely. That business led to success in so many other ways and I realized that it all started from building in public. Because of this I’m making an effort this year (2024) to post more and build more in public. I’m mostly doing that on X/twitter.
I’m interested in this investing style called trend following. But it is more than an investing style. It is a way of life or way to think. It is all about embracing failure, failing a lot, and finding a few huge outlier wins through repeated small bets and failures. Looking at the indie hacker community on X/Twitter I saw success in people that were building lots of small products/startups and failing until they stumble upon success. This aligns with my thinking and is how bloging was for me 15 years ago. I would put out 100 posts and only one or two would become an outlier success. You can’t predict what will resonate with an audience. To that end I decided to build a bunch of products in 2024 knowing most wont make it and that’s OK.
I’m currently working on:
We bought a permanent camp spot near a lake to relax and give our kids a great summer outdoor experience. I’ve always said we would never own a boat but I think we now need to get a boat.